- 21.3% of American electrical energy production is natural gas as of 2010, 20.8% expected in 2035; nearly 95% of new generation installed 2000-2010 was natural gas EEI, 38
- Natural gas is used across sectors:
The key argument in its favor is that it's so economically viable to extract & burn it for power that its rise is currently causing the shutdown of coal mines and coal plants– thus transitioning us from a highly CO2-emissive power source to a highly CH4-emissive power source.
Detractors assert that we can't afford to increase our methane emissions, because even a decades-long timescale for the high warming effects is too long for our current climate. However, there isn't another option that's currently available on the economic timescales we need to transition off of coal. (Ideally, we'd have strong investment in solar/wind, but production capacity will take some time to ramp up– and it would have to be a huge investment. While solar/wind are economically positive, they're nowhere near as economically attractive as natural gas.)
I have an article that goes into more detail on what to expect for natural gas based on the EIA's 2016 report– read it on Medium.
Natural gas as a transition fuel
- Natural gas is so cheap that it's causing coal plants to close/switching American power generation away from coal EIA, 112
- Methane emissions are highly warming, but they persist in the atmosphere only about 12 years, compared to 20-200 years for CO2 Clark
Climate change problems caused by natural gas
- Natural gas has been argued for as a "clean alternative" to oil, but fracked natural gas may emit enough methane to make it comparable in "dirtiness" to coal Klein, 192
- Methane has a warming potential 86 times greater than carbon dioxide Klein, 130 // According to the EPA it's 28-36x greater, not 86x- but GWP calculations are not standard so perhaps Klein is using a shorter timescale (EPA's is 100 years)
- Modern fracking takes 70-300x the amount of fluid (usually water + sand) used in traditional fracking. This fluid often becomes toxic, radioactive waste. 280 billions of this waste were created from fracking in 2012. Klein, 312 //How does it get to be radioactive? Is this true?
Mechanics of natural gas
- Expected U.S. natural gas extraction methods: EIA, 119
- Fracking (hydraulic fracturing): Water is shot into the shale layer through a drilled hole. When water pressure exceeds the weight of the rock above it, the rock cracks to let the water expand. This lets gases (adsorbed into rock) escape. When water pressure is released, it spurts from the ground along with the released gas. Muller, 93
- Compressed natural gas (CNG) is compressible to 250 atm and can be carried in steel or fiber composite tanks. At this level, CNG is 1/3 the energy density of gasoline (11kwh/g), 10x the energy density of li-ion, 4x the energy density of hydrogen at the same pressure, and 2/5 cost of gasoline Muller, 261
Economics of natural gas harvest
- Both demand (including export) and supply (improved technology and lots of deposits) are expected to increase in the United States over the 2015-2040 period. This should keep natural gas prices stable & low over that time period EIA, 21
- The vast majority of new gas projects in North America rely on fracking Klein, 192
- Rising natural gas production makes byproduct fuels like HGL and NGPL more economically viable EIA, 83
- Natural gas production from tight and shale gas formations increased 23% from 2010 to 2015 in the United States. This is a shift from traditional dry natural gas (which still dominates) to wet EIA, 83
- Wet natural gas is slower to profit than dry natural gas (it requires processing into dry before it can be put in pipelines, and the formations have low initial yields) but the NGPL output can make it more profitable in the long run EIA, 86
- "Because NGPL is produced during the processing of natural gas, either from natural gas wells or from gas associated with crude oil production, NGPL production levels are largely driven by the development of these resources. The revenue associated from extracting NGPL streams, such as ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline, justify the cost of producing areas with NGPL-rich resources. When the price ratio between crude oil and natural gas is high, a producer is more likely to develop higher NGPL recovery formations because they can overcome the higher cost of processing these resources. When the spread is narrow, a producer is likely to avoid these costs and focus on developing natural gas production areas with low or no NGPL." Wilczewski
- Assuming easy supply, a natural gas vehicle (NGV) costs $0.04/mile; gasoline costs $0.10; all electric (including battery replacement) costs $0.44-0.75 Muller, 263
Nonfuel uses of natural gas
- // What are the emissions effects of using natural gas as feedstock rather than fuel?
- Feedstock uses of natural gas are expected to increase domestically over the 2015-2040 period as petroleum producers build processing plants capitalizing on the low cost of natural gas/stabilizing supply/demand of NG. These plants will predominantly produce bulk chemicals for export. Other major uses will be refinement for fuel, food products, mining, iron, steel, paper, and metal-based durables EIA, 23